USD/JPY 2014 – 2015 technical short

Monthly Chart

Daily Chart

Preference:

Short positions below 110.00 with targets 100.00, 98.60, 94.30
Bought at 101.80 S/L 110.20 (850 pips)
T/P-1 100.00 (180 pips), Risk 4:1
T/P-2 98.60 (320), Risk 3:1
T/P-3 94.30 (750 pips), Risk 1:1

Period of Time:

12 Months

Basis:

• Technical analysis Idea – Key resistance Levels on monthly chart
• Strong Resistance – Bottom line of Bearish descending triangle (1998 – 2008)
• JPY looks oversold (24 months of pair growth).
• Targets – 23.6 and 38.2 FIBO Levels from 75.95 – 105.45
• Current Price is below EMA200 on Monthly Charts.
• The Japanese yen eased after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its stimulus program unchanged (15 July). Do not expect additional steps by the Central Bank.
• Lloyds Bank said in a note to clients: “The yen has risen modestly versus the dollar over the past month. This partly reflects more general dollar weakness but also a risk-off move after recent developments in Portugal.”
• The outlook for the Japanese economy remains clouded by uncertainty over the impact of the consumption tax rise. Economic activity, particularly retail spending, slumped in April and the extent of any subsequent recovery is unclear. With Q2 likely to be adversely impacted, it will be some time before the underlying state of the economy becomes apparent.
• Speculative reason – buy a pair at cheaper price levels. Provocate BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to make actions. (Kuroda told reporters on 15 July that the world’s third-largest economy was only halfway to meeting the 2% inflation target, and that the BOJ will maintain its quantitative easing (QE) program until the target was met.)